Late Round Value

It seems like there are more late round bargains this year than in previous fantasy years.  In today's Fantasy Sports Java we will highlight A.J Burnett and give our expert opinion.  Stay tuned because we will continue to highlight late round draft bargains for you all the way until the season starts.

A.J. Burnett

A.J Burnett moved back to the National League after a 6 year stint in the American League with the Blue Jays and Yankees.  The move, along with hard work did wonders for the 36 year old vet.  Posting his lowest ERA (3.51) since his last year in the National League (2005 Florida Marlins), Burnett worked wonders for the Pittsburgh Pirates last year. Thanks in part to the re-emergence of his nasty curve ball, Burnett also posted 180 K's, his most in three years.

Why was Burnett so effective in the move to the National League?

Everyone is aware that the American League is significantly more taxing on pitchers as a result of facing 9 hitter in the lineup as opposed to 8 hitter and 1 pitcher in the National League.  This had an obvious positive effect on Burnett.  I believe that a lot of his success can be attributed to the move to PNC Park.  A pitcher friendly park, with the addition of facing a pitcher in the lineup as opposed to a DH, significantly helped Burnett to a 16-10 season.  Check out these home/away splits that further support my claim.

		G	GS	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
Home		17	17	8	6	0	0	0	0	0	110.1	107	45	38	8	27	89	3.10	1.21	.254
Away		14	14	8	4	0	0	0	1	1	92.0	82	41	41	10	35	91	4.01	1.27	.238

His walk rate, ERA, WHIP and most importantly HR's were lower at home than on the road.  A.J. has typically been haunted by the long ball, especially during his tenure in the American League.  Burnett dropped his HR total to 18 dingers last year.  His previous totals for the last three years-
2009-25 HR
2012-25 HR
2013- 31 HR

Will Burnett continue his success in 2013?

Burnett is a 36 year old pitcher with a declining fastball velocity.  However, if he can continue to successfully throw his signature curve ball and keep the ball in the park he should have another fantasy relevant year.  There are a few red flags, such as the Pirates uncanny ability to stink it up year after year, the loss of the DisAstros from the NL Central, his 36 year old body, and a decline in velocity.  However, PNC Park has treated Burnett well and he might not post as good of numbers as last year, but he should be on your fantasy radar.

Where should I target A.J. Burnett on draft day?

A.J. is going off the boards anywhere from rounds 13-16 in mock drafts as of late.  My recommendation would be to target Burnett in Round 15 as one of your back end of the rotation fantasy starters.  I would be a very happy camper on draft day with A.J. Burnett as my 5th or 6th starter in my fantasy rotation.  Also, in part because I typically target NL pitchers with a slightly higher value than AL pitchers.

Target A.J. Burnett-Round 15

A solid back of the rotation fantasy SP, investing in Burnett in Round 15 should give you a solid fantasy starter with a nice K rate at the back end of your rotation.

 

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